Genetic Trends

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GENETICS OVERVIEW

There are three important things that need to be kept in mind:

1. The Breedplan figures are not a description of the animal itself, but a prediction of what its calves are likely to be terms of those characteristics that are measured by Breedplan. The comparison to be made is with the current average values for that breed.

2. The figures represent probabilities and not certainties and are arrived at by statistical analysis. The term “statistics” frightens many people, but properly applied are the reason why Casino operators flourish at the expense of their patrons.

3. Breedplan figures represent only those characteristics such as weight, testicular circumference, fat depth and eye muscle area that can be objectively measured. Other characteristics such as structural correctness and coat colour [if that’s important to you] are assessed by eye alone.

Another matter that deserves emphasis is that differences in EBVs are small. A bull may have a 600 day weight EBV of say 30 kilograms above average, but in animals that could weigh anything up to 800 kilograms such a difference could be completely masked by environmental effects including feeding.

Such differences, although small, do accumulate over the generations if they are selected for as shown in those graphs that demonstrate how the breed average has improved progressively over the years. All desirable characteristics need to be selected for if the female herd is to continue to make progress.

You can learn a good deal about a bull by looking at it including his size, fat cover, confirmation, structural correctness, butt shape, coat colour, markings and overall eye appeal and these qualities often represent about all the prospective purchaser takes into consideration in making a decision.

However, it could be very useful to know other data including the bull’s date of birth, his weight at different ages and his ranking amongst other bulls of the same age reared under identical conditions. It would also be informative to know his birth weight and how he scanned for fat depth, eye muscle area and marbling. Additional information is often also available on his sire, dam and other close relatives. By the time all this information becomes available, evaluation of the bull becomes increasingly complex and this is when help from an expert statistician is required. If this sounds familiar it is because you are starting to look more closely at the way in which Breedplan operates.

Chance enters into our considerations in two ways. The first concerns the accuracy of the EBV’s themselves. It has been said that statistics relies on the law of large numbers and the more the data available the more reliable the conclusions. This is why animals with large numbers of calves recorded and links to animals in other herds by AI have higher accuracies than those that have yet to have calves or that have few relatives on record.

The second way in which chance plays a part concerns heritability. This is the probability that an animal will resemble its parents and lies anywhere between 0 percent (the character in question is not inherited) and 100 percent (for example, the white face in Herefords]. In practice the heritability of most traits ranges between 10 percent [for fertility] and 70 percent [for carcase eye muscle area] so that obviously greater progress is going to be made in selecting for muscling than selecting for fertility. Data of this kind does not rely on theoretical considerations but is derived from actual measurements of the trait in large numbers of animals.